They are giving out the Noble Prizes this week. TTG’s presence has not been requested in Oslo so I guess I didn’t make the cut in literature. Peace? Physics? I don’t think so. Bottom line is they pick the best in each field. The ones that have had great breakthroughs in their particular disciplines. They might even be called genius although I abhor that word. 

In our crazy world we are constantly looking for answers. I am not sure if we are seeking solutions on the past or a crystal ball into the future. Probably a bit of both. Where do we go? To the experts! Gurus and fortune tellers abound but do we rely on them too much?

Finance and economics are on everybody’s minds these day. Jobs, retirement, wealth, recessions, interest rates. The “Fed” is at the heart of defining our monetary policy. When we are down, they prime the pump and when we are getting too crazy, they slam on the brakes. When and if they do that, markets react in both directions. 

I can only imagine how many dudes and dudettes in the Fed are poring over thousands of numbers from millions of input points to figure out where we go from here. Yet despite all that talent and computing power they get it wrong. We keep rates too long or don’t raise them fast enough. We are all human and Monday morning quarterbacking is great, but this is what they are paid to do. 

Hurricane IAN kicked the crap out of those poor devils on the southwest coast of Florida. There were “spaghetti lines” of storm tracks that were the result of a lot of professionals looking at data. FEMA has to plan and place resources at various points. Florida Power and Light has trucks on the ready. Yet nobody in their right mind could have predicted the ferocity and destruction that took place. 

When you are messing with Mother Nature she often flips the bird to weather”geniuses”. This is not calling them to task in any way. In the end it is an inexact science. Many made decisions to evacuate or stay based on the hourly reports. Some got it right and some perished. In this arena, a difference or 10-20 miles spelled disaster or escape. That turn of the storm’s eye can occur in a matter of hours. The results might last forever. 

Corporate America and even countries are  prone to relying on consultants. Where do we go, what do we do in solving this or that challenge? There have been wonderful success stories and absolute disasters as a result. The famed McKinsey in the year 2000 told AT&T cell phones would be a niche market of only 900,000 users. I often wonder if hiring consultants is the ultimate CYA? The devil told me to do it. 

The US government is teed up in so many situations for a lot more than bad reviews. I am pretty sure in years to come, history will take a hard look at our response to COVID on so many levels. The excuse is we weren’t prepared for something this broad and deadly. My question is what are all the pandemic specialists at NIH and CDC doing? They were supposed ot be preparing for just this very thing. 

Bay of Pigs, Viet Nam, Mission Accomplished, Afghanistan, China, North Korea. How could we have gotten these things so wrong for so long? Nobody predicted Ukraine’s ability to fight back and succeed to this extent. We have the CIA, DIA, FBI,NSA et al sizing up situation after situation. The billions if not trillions we have spent on expert advisers, faulty weapons systems, computer systems that had no chance of being functional. The billions of aid to here and there of which there is no accountability. How does that happen? Does, “we are just mere mortals” cut the ice? 

I could go on and on but the point of the matter is that in every walk of life we strive to be successful and efficient with our resources. In planning our attack we rely on information in pure data and even more the interpretation by experts.  I am really torn by how much I can rely on that? More importantly who do I trust?

I am inquisitive and questioning by nature. I do not accept something because the writer or speaker is supposedly really smart.  Not to be a pain in the ass but to be sure in my mind I am getting the best information. Do I screw up? Of course I do. My biggest errors have occurred by not digging deep enough or questioning that which did not seem quite right. My bad! Yes, one can have “analysis paralysis” but we can also be lazy in not looking more intensely at something we know is not quite right. 

There are those that are really smart and some that think they are.  There are those that are more puff than substance. We tend to think that because someone makes a lot of money they know all the answers to business, life  and whatever. Because of title or place in society they are to be admired and believed. Many times the simplest person is the most wise. I guess the real genius is the one that figures that out. 

As always 

Ted The Great 

Factoids:

To err is human, to forgive is divine. Maybe….

We spend as a government almost $100 billion on intelligence gathering and analysis. 

$132 billion was spent worldwide on consultants in 2020. $65 billion was spent in the US alone. 

We spend 3-5 hours a day on electronic media. We read an average of one book every three months. 

Highly Intelligent People :

 Disorganized, adaptable, foul mouthed, understand limits, love learning, intuitive, know there is no such thing as luck, curious, night owls, risk takers, procrastinate, open minded, good instincts, oldest child, introverted and non aggressive. How  did you score?