I am starting off with a piece from John Ellison’s Substack. It is not political in any way. It is a clear statement of facts. If anyone wants to take on its accuracy, please do. I hope you take a minute to read and consider its implications. 

“ Not that anyone seems to care, but:

Around 2030, the United States is projected to surpass three milestones that illustrate the lack of precedent for the government’s fiscal predicament. 

According to the Congressional Budget Office, 2030 is the year when federal debt held by the public as a share of the economy will exceed the record set by World War II. Unlike in the ’40s, this debt shows no signs of ever declining. 

In 1945, 84 percent of federal outlays were on defense, a tsunami of spending that would ebb once World War II concluded. In 2025, 73 percent of federal outlays were on mandatory spending or interest payments, which are legally obligated to continue. 

The year 2030 is also roughly when the ratio of seniors to the total population will reach 1 in 5. As recently as 2008, the ratio was around 1 in 8. Seniors’ rising share of the population mechanically raises Social Security and Medicare costs and pushes them onto a proportionally smaller working population. 

The U.S. always used to be able to count on a naturally rising population as an engine for economic growth, but that will no longer be the case. That’s because 2030 is also the year when the CBO projects that deaths will begin to exceed births. The entitlement programs making up much of the budget were designed under 20th-century demographic expectations that no longer hold true. 

Social Security used to take in more money than it gave out, but that money was spent on other things. The program has run annual deficits since 2010. It is projected to go insolvent in 2032, at which point seniors would receive a roughly one-quarter cut in benefits across the board. 

Medicare’s budget-busting makes Social Security’s look modest by comparison. Of the projected $138 trillion budget shortfall over the next 30 years, $109 trillion is from Medicare. Rising health care costs, combined with an aging population receiving far more in benefits than it ever paid in taxes, spells fiscal Armageddon. The Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund goes insolvent in 2033.”

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The sheer simplicity struck me. Anyone should be able to read it and understand it. It focuses on one extremely important aspect of our world…deficit spending. There are many other critical components to pursue ranging from infrastructure to foreign policy. That is not the point. We are so good at avoiding facing difficult solutions. What was I thinking?.It is time for the summer break. 

We have the rich and famous, both individually and as mega corporations. We can tout how much they contribute to society and pay more than their fair share of taxes. Yes and no. Are they scheduled to shell out huge sums as  is touted for the 1or 10% ? Yes, with an asterisk. More importantly is how much of that taxation is subtracted through a variety of loopholes and the definition of what salary is. 

We have given large corporations all sorts of deductions on the hope they will “reinvest in America.” Bravo….except they have spent a majority of this money on share buybacks. Of course that raises the stock price at whose benefit? The average Joe? 

Let’s not let our socialist friends off the hook. They have more ways to spend money than Carter’s Little Liver pills. Subsidized housing. Free healthcare and child care. Perhaps a guaranteed income whether you work or not. If you do we are going to have a fat minute wage. Let’s have all the corporations come under government ownership.

Both sides are tough to reason with. The only way you and I can affect policy is to vote in one side or the other. Every four or eight years we flip our approach to spending and foreign policy. That usually doesn’t work and we go back to ground zero. And to use an abhorrent phrase,”We kick the can down the road.” To my way of thinking we are about to run out of any road whatsoever. 

People ask how we got here? I would ask do we really take this process seriously? When we vote for someone do we really know them or do we just step in the booth and pull the red or white lever   as a robot. Do we listen to attack ads or is there ever any reasonable back and forth?

Let’s take Trump. He ran on closing down the border which I agree wholeheartedly with. He also wanted to round up the crooks and rapists. How can you be against that? Is the government bloated? Mais oui. But…

Did you vote for ripping people out of cars and shooting them? Rousting people in the middle of the night who have been here for 30 years with a wife and kids? Oh and by the way sending them off to Latin America or Africa without any recourse where they will probably die in prison. Are we all that inhumane?

I am not picking on the Donald. He is just the most obvious demonstration of knowing what you are really getting into. Senators and Congresspeople are much more subtle. After a while they settle in and find all the neat escapes and benefits. I will ask you if this is who you and I are? 

Do you really understand that our current crop of politicians are so beholding to party hacks and vested interests? The entire nominating system is so tilted that you have to  pledge undying devotion and loyalty or you are out. Is it US or THEM who are planning our future? We only have ourselves to blame. 

You and I in everyday life have to understand the implications of what we do. If I make an investment it is either good or bad. If I am profligate or just a bad guy I pay the price. Is that what happens in our beloved government  or even corporate America? I think pardons and golden parachutes have made for an air of irresponsibility and insolence. 

My point is simple. You and I have to take our world more seriously. We have to realize the implications of what we do and say. We have to take an interest in what is going on. We have to look at both left and right and realize the long term consequences of what they are saying.Is this even possible? At this point it is a long shot. I sat that as an optimistic pragmatist who really gives a shit. 

I hope you do too. 

As always 

Ted The Great

Factoids:

Only one. The opening statement.